Are we Heading for a recession?
This has been the most debated topic across media of late and especially amongst the investment community. The ingredients are definitely there – A war in Europe, geopolitical risk, liquidity tightening, hawkish central banks, commodity prices shooting, oil at $135 a barrel, sanctions, bans on trade and China going into another set of lockdowns. Investors […]
Market Predictions for 2022
Warren Buffet made this profound statement many years ago, “A prediction about the direction of the stock market, tells you nothing about the where stocks are headed, but a whole lot about the person doing the predicting.” Howard marks, one of my favourite authors wrote a wonderful memo on, Uncertainty associated with investing and the […]
The Irrational Exuberance of Markets in Q1
The markets crashed by 40% on 23rd March, when India had 600 Covid case, no Covid death and a lockdown had just been announced. Now, when we have a close to a million cases and more than 20000 deaths, the market is up 40% from its March lows with no immediate economic recovery in sight. […]
The blackest of Black Swan – Covid 19?
Black Swan….An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. The phrase “black swan” derives from a Latin expression; its oldest known occurrence is from the 2nd-century Roman poet Juvenal’s characterization of something being “rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno” (“a rare bird […]
2019 – The Year that was
As we approach the end of the year and the dawn of the New Year, the number crunching starts. Specifically, as the calendar year ends, we download raw data and try to decipher trends and patterns in the data. With the end of 2019 and the start of the new decade, let’sstartby reviewing the year gone by […]
Economy at a low; Markets at a high?
The two most relevant and frequent questions that we face today from investors are: Why is the market touching new highs when the Indian economy is faring so poorly and seems to be on a downward spiral ? And the next immediate question invariably is: Why is my portfolio doing so badly or underperforming when […]
“October Effect” – Fact or Fantasy..
The stock markets have its own superstitions, sayings and lunacies.Some of them are connected with certain months, some with dates and some with specific days.Old stock market adage says “Sell in May and Go away”, “The back to school trade is always down,” and “Remember September always underperforms.”As per the Chinese calendar, August is considered […]
It’s the economy, stupid !
“It’s the economy, stupid” is a slight variation of the phrase “The economy, stupid”, which James Carville coined for Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 Presidential campaign against sitting president George Bush. Carville’s original phrase was meant for the internal audience of Clinton’s campaign workers as one of the three messages to focus on. Clinton’s campaign advantageously used the then-prevailing […]
Why is Market Sentiment so poor..??
Of late, despite a record mandate for the ruling government, relatively benign macros, low oil prices, reasonably good monsoon, falling interest rates, low inflation, fiscal prudence by the government and many such favourable factors, the sentiment remains poor. In terms of year-to-date performance of the top 50 equity markets in the world, we are now […]
What To do in the Equity market now?
In recent times, if the sea of red on your portfolio statement is prompting you to lose faith in equity investing, your mind is telling you to stop your SIPs and go back to FDs, just remind yourself of, why you began to invest in equity in the first place.If you started your equity-fund SIPs […]